When will global beef prices be reflected in our cattle prices? This one of the more complex questions in today's global beef market and the simple answer is when rain comes - Australian cattle supply will tighten as the cattle slaughter slows down dramatically and the females are retained for breeding and herd rebuilding commences in earnest.Read More
Recently I was fortunate enough to visit four meat processing plants across India on behalf of a customer where I was able to have a first hand look at India's buffalo industry that has progressively got larger in recent years and now ranks in the top four global exporters of bovine in the world.Read More
In the last week we have seen global beef prices go to new record price levels as protein supplies shorten everywhere - as I write this I almost have reluctance to put pricing down as these in certain markets are changing by the hour.
It seems the leaner the product is the higher the prices are going - a good example being Bull 95 CL which in mid-September was trading at 238-240 CIF into the US and two months later is now 40% higher at 335 CIF EC today - US importers are matching their counterparts in China.
Much of the rally I believe in the market is a direct result of African Swine Fever and the estimated 15-20 million tonne shortfall in China's pork production expected each year for the next 3-5 years - the recent price action of imported pork, beef, chicken and sheep meat is reflecting China's need to fill this protein void - as a result US importers and end users are needing to buy away from China in preparation for the northern summer.
In this paper I am sharing my thoughts on where imported 90 CL and US fresh 90's CL might end up in 2020 - I would ask you seek other peoples opinions and do your own research as these are only my own personal views - given the variables that exist both globally and within China forecasting is a precarious business at the moment.Read More
At the recent Leman China Swine Conference I listened to Chinese hog producers large and small, Chinese swine academics and their US counterparts speak on a vast array of topics on ASF in China and how the China pork industry will eventually rebuild itself from this disease.
I believe the China pork industry is coming to several crossroads on how the industry will evolve from here - in this paper I look to explore these potential evolution optionsRead More
This week I attended the Leman China Swine Conference where 5,200 delegates were present - the conference was held in Zhengzhou, in Henan Province, with the main focus of the three day meeting being African Swine Fever, presentations were made reflecting the lessons learnt in the last 12 months and the advances that China has made in dealing with this disease.
This paper is the first part of three papers that I will write about that focuses on the findings of the conference.Read More
I believe we are looking at a critical global protein shortage next year due to the impact of African swine fever driven by China as well as nine other Asian countries. These nine other countries will also add to next years genuine global protein shortage. Such shortages are likely to lead to a substantial increase in prices across all proteins, and I see beef in particular having the largest price increase globally compared to pork and chicken in 2020.Read More
I don’t know exactly when it happened, but recent political movements clearly indicate that perceptions around the idea of globalization have changed. Not just in the U.S. with the election of Donald Trump, but also with Britain’s Brexit, and Marine Le Pen’s announcement to run for France’s president in April. It is also being manifest in China by President Xi, who has moved toward nationalistic policies. Make no mistake, the world is changing. Participants in global trade must adjust and prepare accordingly.Read More
Trump's hot rhetoric against China is raising trade friction. Will it be in a good way or bad? Too soon to tell. But in the meantime, it's important to understand the agriculture trade relationship with China; what China needs, and what China does not.Read More
Market uncertainty and volatility are defining 2016. Major trend shifts are noted. Events were set into motion in 2015, which marked a major correction in most global agriculture commodities. Assumptions are shifting and strategies must be realigned as well to adjust to a much different global picture.Read More
The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) is scheduled to formally launch the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) on January 1, 2016 (yes 2016, we take a forward-view). The AEC is to be the first step to achieve full regional economic and financial integration among the 10 member nations: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Some have called it the ASEAN’s version of the European Common Market. When the AEC comes into being in 2016, it would stand as the world’s eighth largest economy with a total population of 610 million people. Although the AEC is a year away, ASEAN members and their meat and poultry suppliers need to watch for creeping protectionism beginning in 2015.Read More
The world’s trade agenda, and most of America’s trade agenda, show few vital signs and little hope of a recovery in the near term. While small victories may be on the horizon, like beef to China, there are almost no bright spots for agriculture.Read More
The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) recently released a publication Generation 2030 / Africa which focuses on population growth in Africa. While much of the world is experiencing a slowdown in population growth, the same cannot be said for sub-Saharan Africa. If the UNICEF projections are correct, significant resources are needed to improve the region’s transportation, sanitation and water infrastructure; power generation and food supplies. Without income growth and policies to provide more jobs and better living conditions parts of Africa may see even greater unrest in the future.Read More
New 10 year global estimates were recently published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UN/FAO). These estimates confirm our expectations of strong global food demand growth.Read More
Japan is one of the largest pork importers on earth, buying just under 1 million metric tons in 2013. However in terms of total dollar value pork imports, they are a solid #1 at $4.8 billion in 2013. #2 Germany was at US$2.9 billion.
Last year, Japan imported 48% of their entire national pork consumption. And 41% of that pork came from the U.S. The U.S. has been the dominant pork supplier to Japan for over a decade.
A newly released demographic research paper is altering thinking about how Africa, and African markets, are developing. Prior projections from the UN showed much of Africa fertility rates falling, but a new study indicates that fertility rates remain exceptionally high (5.1 to 6) in many of the best developing markets in Africa. This includes the nations of Nigeria, Ghana, Angola, Tanzania, Cameroon, the Ivory Coast and Senegal.Read More
In our newsletters we often state our mistrust in Chinese data, whether it be agricultural or economic. Often Chinese data is adjusted to fit what provincial leaders and Beijing planners have targeted for the year. One does not get promoted for being below output expectations.Read More
2014 will be defined by biological and political factors. Economics may take a backseat to both.Read More
For years, the U.S. has been the largest beef importer on the planet, due mainly to the need for fast-food grinding beef. However, last fall a seismic shift occurred: Chinese beef inflation rapidly moved China from the #4 beef importer to #1; and it happened in 8 months. Today the greater China region (China+ H. Kong) is the #1 importer of beef globally. And the growth is not over yet.Read More
The high 2012 corn prices continue working their way through the global pork production sector. And they are having an impact.Read More
China has restricted the use and importation of beta agonist compounds and meat from animals fed beta agonists for years. Ractopamine has been recently listed by both China and Russia in new requirements to have imported meat be certified free of the compound prior to import. In an illogical move, Taiwan restricts pork produced with ractopamine but not beef; ironically, they also have a substantial pork industry but not much of a beef industry. The European Union also restricts beta-agonists in meat imports. These “requests” by overseas governments (not consumers) are beginning to impact U.S. production practices.Read More
There is a widening global poverty gap emerging. A gap between the “haves” and the “have nots” are widening. It is a story commonly heard. However, in this case the poorer countries are becoming the “haves” and the developed world is becoming the “have nots”. The story is U.S. livestock and poultry products, and as the charts below show, more and more of the dollars generated by U.S. farmers are coming from the world’s poorer residents.Read More
No export market has shown the growth performance for the U.S. meat/poultry sector more than Mexico. U.S. meat/poultry exports to Mexico are set to top 1.5 million metric tons (2.4 billion pounds) valued at US$2.8 billion this year, the equivalent of over 8 pounds for every American. The 15 year growth rate in export value has averaged 15% back to 1995. Broiler exports have posted new record highs two of the past three months (Aug/Oct). Broiler exports to Mexico will surpass annual record volumes by >20% this year; pork exports will surpass last year’s record by >10%. Turkey exports have bloomed also, up 9% through October and on track to set another annual record. While Mexican pressure has grown against the rising pork and broiler shipments, both domestic production levels have held relatively steady for years (see note on broiler issues below).Read More
A very interesting irony in the global agriculture sector today is that India will become the largest beef exporter globally in 2012. However, they do have the largest cowherd (and dairy herd) on earth. This discussion always brings a flurry of questions as perceptions of India’s strong vegetarianism and bovine religious views would project a very different story. In a limited amount of space here today, we hope to break it down in a clear way.Read More